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WEEKLY GAME PLAN December 5, 2020

Welcome to the Weekly Game Plan! The 'MARA Lists' are updated in real-time. The 'Market Summary' is provided weekly. The 'Deep Dive Video' is the recording of our weekly Trading Prep DEEP DIVE.
Trade-Ideas / Game Plan

TRADE IDEAS:

When there are few setups, I often find myself hesitant to start new positions. It’s kinda like if you were to go to a store. Practically everything is sold out! …But you find a handful of things still left on the shelf. Part of me asks ‘why is it still there?’  

The only trade of our small group that I felt good about was ETSY. The reason why has a lot to do with the weekly price action. Of the setups, its the only one that hit fresh highs last week and pulled back from them. Thus, its still showing leadership. Meanwhile, the others (while structually look pretty decent) are lagging the market.

Here are my notes:

Also note how many ideas are on the momentum day trading list! When there is this much momentum, its great for day trading! 

GAME PLAN:

In most cases, I wouldn’t take an entry as aggressive on ETSY. Part of what’s giving me the confidence to move forward (aside from what’s listed in the notes in the google sheet) is the performance of my portfolio. XPEL and AMD are making fantastic progress! Though I missed out on taking TSLA and TTD the week prior dealing with COVID, both of those trades are performing extremely well too! AAPL is near the buy point and AAXN is underwater but still holding up. 

Market Summary

MARKET MOOD: Fresh all-time highs across (timeframes and indexes) and the bulls are running! I think the question we need to be asking is will this turn into a lock out rally where price just keeps on running to the upside and not giving long term or intermediate term traders another shot to get in… OR do we get a sharp pull back?   This is where our ‘forest, trees, and leaves’ approach where we start at the monthly timeframe, and work our way down to the weekly and daily time frames comes in handy. The monthly and weekly time frames look pretty extended. If prior resistance doesn’t hold then major support appears to be the 10wk line which is a long ways away especially on the Russell 2000 (see charts linked below). But when we look at the daily timeframes, we can see that price actually consolidated for about 7 days and then broke out in a big way on Friday. That created a much nearer term level of significant support and potentially firmer ground for the bulls to stand on.
But the indexes aren’t the only part of what we look at when we consider the “Market’s Mood”. Looking at the Universe List is important as well! Recall that the Universe List is all of the stocks we’re interesting that passes our scans. Learn more in this blog post.
Presently, out of approximately 175 stocks on the Universe List, only 7 of them made the focus list as potential swing trades. Meanwhile, 27 are on the momentum day trading list. Stocks on this list are already running and are far extended from swing trading buy points. However, the lack of overhead resistance often makes trading in the direction of the longer term trends easier and more effective for day trades.    OVERALL DIRECTION: UUU (Uptrend on monthly, weekly, and daily time frames)

NEW HIGHS vs NEW LOWS: This week as the indexes hit new highs, the number of stocks hitting new highs increased as well. On Friday there were 156 stocks hitting new highs on the NYSE. Seeing the number increase is an indication of breadth.

DAILY CHARTS: https://www.tradingview.com/x/NIOWFuuQ/?aff_id=15325&offer_id=10

WEEKLY CHARTS: https://www.tradingview.com/x/XYnGEVBb/?aff_id=15325&offer_id=10

MONTHLY CHARTS: https://www.tradingview.com/x/gjGJ8EV0/?aff_id=15325&offer_id=10

Deep Dive Video

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