It’s very interesting to see both the major indexes setting up (all of them formed handles on the daily time frame) and a plethora of cup with handle setups among stocks. What makes it even more interesting is that this is all happening with a little over 2 weeks before the election.
Distribution continues to lessen on the indexes. Friday’s reversal was interesting as it occurred on higher volume than the days prior. We’ll see what happens from here but given that kind of action, I wouldn’t be surprised IF we pull back to support once more.
OVERALL DIRECTION: SSS (sideways on monthly, weekly, and daily time frames)
NEW HIGHS vs NEW LOWS: I continue to be impressed with the number of stocks making new highs vs stocks making new lows. What impresses me is that we’re seeing even more stocks making new highs now while the market is consolidating than when we were at fresh highs in August.
*When it comes to trading, I have awareness of major events but allow the market to guide me. Right now the market and stocks continue to setup bullishly and therefore my stance is to continue to move in, add positions as trades continue to work, and ride the wave.
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT: I just updated the stops in my portfolio and 3% of trading capital at risk. Based on what I’m seeing setting up (breadth & quality) as well as my performance (trades are working), I’m looking to add 2 positions next week and bring my exposure to 4%. I’ll do this by adding JD (right now I have 0.5% risked on it since I raised my stop). When JD triggers, it’ll be added as a full position but my risk on it will only be 1%. This is because the stop loss on JD for the new position is at breakeven on my old position and the stop on everything will be raised.
I’m also looking to add AMD. More on this in the trade ideas section.
More strong setups this week including TSLA (7.75), JD (7.74), and AMD (7.72)
These scores are high and because trades are working well, I’m bullish and will be adding. However, since I already have a position in TSLA and it hasn’t moved yet, I won’t be adding to my existing position.
JD is discussed above in the portfolio management section.
AMD is a strong setup, in a strong group, with a number of stocks setting up in the semiconductor group. This kind of group consolidation often foreshadows a group move.
Here’s the link to this week’s notes: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_6i5NACjVXQ-uqWiOVRbSmiPlnzU8PZ90vNchibhbPw/edit?usp=sharing
A couple of notes on the sheet:
- We’ve added ‘TRADE GAUNTLET NOTES’. This will show you all of the criteria the idea met! Roll over the cell and to see this notes box.
- The ‘notes and game plans’ cell was getting too long so I tightened the cell. To see all the info, double click the cell.
- Mara Trader ‘Weekend Assessment’ Sheet
- Trade Emotionator (free position size calculator)
- TrendSpider (charts)
- EdgeWonk (trading journal)
- Options Geek (options EDU + new options chain)
- TradingView (charts)
- Favorite Trading Books
- Market Smith