Welcome to the Weekly Game Plan! The 'MARA Lists' are updated in real-time. The 'Market Summary' is provided weekly. The 'Deep Dive Video' is the recording of our weekly Trading Prep DEEP DIVE.
MARKET MOOD: Yellow
Its been nearly 2 months since our last ‘yellow’ condition but its finally here… The last ones were only about a week long. Things have improved and have upshifted. Be prepared for a downshift. More below.
The summary below is my interpretation of the data in the ‘Market Mood Log’ above:
Indexes transitioning: The monthly charts are in downtrends. The weekly charts are sideways. And the daily charts are in uptrends. What’s this spell?? TRANSITION! There’s many different outcomes that can be produced from here and sure, all outcomes are always on the table. What’s different here is that the probabilities of outcomes are close to equal. The market is getting close to overhead supply and could get smacked back down. Prices could stabilize or chop around violently. Prices could also continue to push higher as much of the news has been bearish. It’s all on the table and in equal servings.
New Highs outpace new lows but barely: For the first time in about 2 months the New Highs outpaced New Lows on the NADSAQ…but 1 (45 highs, 44 lows), but that’s plus everything else was enough to allow the shift from red to yellow. Its also close enough where we should anticipate some chop. Maybe ‘stop and go traffic’ where we switch back and for from red to yellow a few times.
Distribution falling: The distribution count is down to 2 over the last 10 days on the Dow and 4 on the S&P 500.
There are 43 stocks total on the trade ideas list. This week is saw 1 A and several B level setups. Seeing more setups and higher quality setups has me cautiously optimistic here.
Open Trades: Last week I added CNQ, VRTX, and KOS. I’m profitable on all 3 and my stops are at breakeven. I’m still long MRK as well and my stop is above breakeven. I’m about 26% invested with no initial capital risk on the table.
HOW I’M PLAYING THIS HAND: I’m placing orders for VTNR and VAL to start the week and have upped my size to 12.5% per position. If both trigger, I’ll be risking just under 1.5% of my initial capital. Overall (with this 2 new positions plus what I have) I’ll be 50% invested if these trigger. This is exactly how we use progressive exposure. Gaining exposure, increasing size, and risk is still low.
Best Selling Author – Trading Coach – Creator of the Trade Gauntlet – Founder of MaraWealth.com
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