WEEKLY GAME PLAN September 04, 2021

Welcome to the Weekly Game Plan! The 'MARA Lists' are updated in real-time. The 'Market Summary' is provided weekly. The 'Deep Dive Video' is the recording of our weekly Trading Prep DEEP DIVE.
MARA List

Market Summary

MARKET MOOD: YELLOW

Last week the market rallied and conditions have continued to improve. Looking at the ‘market mood log’ in the list above, you’ll notice that over the last 2 weeks, the trends have stabilized. In fact, the only thing preventing a ‘green condition’ at present is the last of ‘A’ level setups. I’m still seeing mostly ‘B’ quality setups.

Here’s a summary of what I’m seeing presently:

  • Major indexes stable / bullish: Looking at the ‘market mood log’ in the list above, you’ll notice that over the last 2 weeks, the trends have stabilized with a bullish bias across all time frames and indexes.
  • The New Highs vs New Lows list rebounded. Stocks making new highs are climing hitting high double digits on the NYSE and increasing on the NASDAQ as well. New lows were in the low single digits. Precisely what you’d expect when the market is making new highs.
  • Distribution Days continue to fall off. The S&P 500 and Dow each only have 2 distribution days over the past 25 days and only have 1 in the last 10 days. This a significant change from only a few weeks ago and shows the selling pressure has lightened up.
  • There are 56 stocks total on the trade ideas list. This is the most I’ve seen in months. Granted 50 of them are entering the “in the neighborhood” stage while only 6 are on the focus list. This could be a good thing if the 50 tighten up some more. It’s almost like a club where there’s a long line outside and a few people inside. Something is happening here.
  • 4 out of 6 open trades are positive. The trades that are underwater (SQ and SHOP) each showed some level of buyers stepping in. While each are early, the fact that short term weakness was bought gave me the patience to sit.
  • 5 of my last 10 trades were winners. This is within my historical batting avg about 40%.

HOW I’M PLAYING THIS HAND: Heading into the week, I’m only placing 1 order and its for IDXX. The reason why is because I still have about 2.5R of initial capital risk on the table. I don’t want to bump it up too much beyond 3R. I want to give the trades I have more time to work plus I don’t feel strongly enough about the other ideas on the focus list to kick out any of the trades I’m currently holding.

Checkout the charts of the indexes below.

MONTHLY CHARTS (indexes) Overcall Direction = Up: https://www.tradingview.com/x/h3WoVO1R/

WEEKLY CHARTS (indexes) Overcall Direction = Uptrend: https://www.tradingview.com/x/xCbq8laT/

DAILY CHARTS (indexes) Overcall Direction = Uptrend: https://www.tradingview.com/x/KRyYQzJO/
(on the lower right is the image of stocks hitting new highs vs new lows on the NASDAQ & NYSE)

MARKET MOOD REVIEW

WINNING and LOSING STREAKS… What YOU Should Expect
Post Analysis of Recent Trades

 

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