WEEKLY GAME PLAN September 25, 2021

Welcome to the Weekly Game Plan! The 'MARA Lists' are updated in real-time. The 'Market Summary' is provided weekly. The 'Deep Dive Video' is the recording of our weekly Trading Prep DEEP DIVE.
MARA List

Market Summary

MARKET MOOD: RED

The market acted like a rubber band last week. It pulled back on Monday and snapped right back the rest of the week. Taking a number of setups up with it. I think it still has a bit more to prove before switching back into a yellow or green condition.

First, if you open up the ‘market mood log’ in the mara list drop down above, on the daily time frame you’ll see this flip flopping of trend from sideways to down and back to sideways. I’d like to see some more sideways action and possibly a shift into an uptrend before switching back into a yellow or green. Remember that the whole traffic color system is a risk management / position sizing tool. When things are choppy, I like to lighten up.

Here’s a summary of what I’m seeing presently:

  • Major indexes improving but still choppy: As mentioned above, the major indexes were like a rubberband last week. Pulling back into major support and then taking off. But now they are at short term resistance levels. This means that the potential for chop is elevated.
  • The New Highs vs New Lows improved but are still low. At the start of the week new lows outpaced new highs on both the NASDAQ and NYSE. I’d like to see a few weeks of consistency here to gain confidence in the trend.
  • Distribution Days are on the rise. The S&P 500 picked up 2 more distribution days and now has a distribution cluster. The Dow picked up another distribution day as well and has been trading under its own 50sma for a week.
  • There are 82 stocks total on the trade ideas list. I like that the list continues to grow. It shows that there is more gas in the tank. Even though many of them are ‘in the neighborhood’ and not on the focus list yet, I think this is building up for a potentially strong 4th quarter.
  • 4 open trades, all green so far. I opened up 4 trades last week. PAYC, ODFL, CRL, and ZS. PAYC and CRL hit my first scale outs. ODFL is close and ZS is near breakeven.
  • Over my last 10 closed trades, however, I’m only batting 30%. That’s below my historical average and a reason for me to size down for now.

HOW I’M PLAYING THIS HAND: To start the week, I’m sticking with 1/4 size positions and am planning to enter orders on 4 trades DHR, SSTK, GLOB, and AMD.

Checkout the charts of the indexes below.

MONTHLY CHARTS (indexes) Overcall Direction = Sideways: https://www.tradingview.com/x/LHshOI7V/

WEEKLY CHARTS (indexes) Overcall Direction = Sideways: https://www.tradingview.com/x/FlWyIKoc/

DAILY CHARTS (indexes) Overcall Direction = Sideways: https://www.tradingview.com/x/hVbonbrr/
(on the lower right is FFTY, the ETF that tracks the IBD 50)

MARKET MOOD REVIEW

Post Analysis of Recent Trades
Trading Lesson of the Week: Risk Management vs Risk Exposure
Risk-ExposureDownload

 

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